The US dollar is expected to maintain a strong correlation with oil prices for the remainder of 2026, driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran, according to a Markets Pulse survey conducted between May 28 and June 3. More than half of the 124 respondents anticipate the linkage between the greenback and Brent crude futures will strengthen, while over a third foresee both moving lower together, Bloomberg reported.
The survey results reflect market sentiment as the Iran war enters its fourth month, with recent clashes marking the most serious escalation since a ceasefire in early April. This renewed violence has heightened concerns about crude supply disruptions, supporting elevated oil prices and reinforcing the dollar's unusual tandem movement with oil futures, according to Bloomberg.
The persistent conflict in Iran has created a unique dynamic in global markets, where the US dollar and oil prices have moved in lockstep, a pattern that is uncommon given their typical inverse relationship. This development underscores the geopolitical risks influencing commodity markets and currency valuations, with the dollar often seen as a safe haven amid Middle East tensions, per Bloomberg analysis.
The Markets Pulse survey, which gathered insights from 124 market participants, provides a snapshot of expectations for the dollar-oil relationship through 2026. The next significant market data releases and geopolitical developments will offer further clarity on how this correlation evolves as the Iran conflict continues.