Prediction market startup Kalshi could be worth as much as $42.1 billion in a bullish scenario, according to a new 46-page report by research firm PitchBook. The report, released this week, values Kalshi at $30.4 billion based on expected 2028 adjusted earnings, with a bear case valuation of $22.8 billion. Kalshi raised a $1 billion Series F round in May that valued the company at $22 billion, and an initial public offering is anticipated as soon as next year, Fortune reported.
PitchBook analyst Franco Granda authored the detailed report, which analyzes Kalshi's financial metrics and the legal challenges facing prediction markets. The report forecasts that Kalshi's revenue will reach $6.4 billion by 2030, with $3.7 billion in adjusted earnings. Granda noted in an interview that Kalshi holds a strong competitive position, despite its main rival Polymarket gaining ground among U.S. consumers through a more cautious regulatory approach, according to fortune.com.
The valuation comes amid growing interest and investment in prediction markets, which surged in popularity starting in 2024. Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted significant funding, with Kalshi's $1 billion Series F round underscoring investor confidence. However, the sector faces uncertainty due to a pending Supreme Court case that could affect Kalshi's business model and valuation. PitchBook's report provides a nuanced view by modeling different legal and market outcomes for the company.
Kalshi's anticipated IPO next year will provide a clearer market valuation, following its latest funding round and PitchBook's projections. The report's forecast of $6.4 billion in revenue by 2030 highlights the company's growth potential amid evolving regulatory conditions, as detailed by fortune.com.